Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — Championship result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Birmingham
35%
Draw
26%
result
Middlesbrough
39%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Middlesbrough win. Expected goals 1.34–1.45 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.4%). It finished 2–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Birmingham
| 19 Sept | H | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Derby | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Norwich | 1–2 | L |
Middlesbrough
| 19 Sept | A | vs Birmingham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | H | vs Millwall | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Norwich | 4–3 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.