Birmingham City vs Swansea City — Championship forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Birmingham City
51%
Draw
26%
Swansea City
23%
Expected goals
1.74–1.16
Birmingham City · Swansea City
Birmingham City win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Birmingham City win is 2–1 (10.1%).
Birmingham City score at least twice in 52%; Swansea City in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Swansea City goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Birmingham City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 51% | 26% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.