Birmingham City vs Millwall — Championship forecast, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Birmingham City
49%
Draw
26%
Millwall
25%
Expected goals
1.59–1.16
Birmingham City · Millwall
Birmingham City win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.9%), 1–0 (10.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Birmingham City win is 2–1 (10.9%).
Birmingham City score at least twice in 48%; Millwall in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Millwall goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Birmingham City goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market reference | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 26% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Millwall
| 19 Sept | H | vs West Ham | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Sept | A | vs Middlesbrough | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Blackburn | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.