Wolfsburg vs Darmstadt — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 56.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Wolfsburg
61%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Darmstadt
19%
Final score
5–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Wolfsburg win 60.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Wolfsburg win. Expected goals 2.05–1.20 against 5–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.3%), 1–1 (9.2%), 2–0 (8.7%). It finished 5–1.
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Wolfsburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hannover | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 4–4 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs St Pauli | 0–1 | L |
Darmstadt
| 8 Aug | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Dresden | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Hannover | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Bielefeld | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wolfsburg (Home · 5 matches) | Darmstadt (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Wolfsburg's home record; away stats use Darmstadt's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.