St Pauli vs Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
FC St. Pauli
43%
top pick
Draw
26%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
31%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a 1. FC Kaiserslautern win 30.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a FC St. Pauli win. Expected goals 1.62–1.34 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (7.5%). It finished 1–2.
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St Pauli
| 9 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
Kaiserslautern
| 8 Aug | A | vs Wolfsburg | 0–0 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Karlsruhe | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St Pauli | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Darmstadt | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Pauli (Home · 3 matches) | Kaiserslautern (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use St Pauli's home record; away stats use Kaiserslautern's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.