🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·11:30

St. Pauli

11:30

— vs 6th

LLLWW

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
St. Pauli	1.92	1.92
Draw	3.80	3.80
Kaiserslautern	3.93	3.93

Metis Forecast

model + market

St. Pauli

51%

Draw

25%

Kaiserslautern

24%

St. Pauli 1.63 xGexpected goals1.16 xG Kaiserslautern

St. Pauli win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 57% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (11.9%).

St. Pauli score at least twice in 50%; Kaiserslautern in 32%.

1–1 11.9%2–1 11.4%1–0 10.6%2–0 8.5%0–0 6.6%1–2 5.7%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.6	5.2	4.0	1.8	0.6	0.2
1	10.6	11.9	5.7	2.5	0.9	0.3
2	8.4	11.4	5.3	1.8	0.6	0.2
3	4.0	5.4	3.6	1.1	0.3	0.1
4	1.4	1.9	1.3	0.6	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = St. Pauli goals · columns = Kaiserslautern goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score57%

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Over 4.5 goals15%

St. Pauli clean sheet32%

Kaiserslautern clean sheet18%

St. Pauli score 2+50%

Kaiserslautern score 2+32%

St. Pauli score 3+22%

Model vs market

Source	St. Pauli	Draw	Kaiserslautern
Raw Metis model	38%	27%	35%
Market (de-vigged)	51%	25%	24%
Metis Forecast	51%	25%	24%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Kaiserslautern

3 Aug	A	vs Hannover	0–1	L
9 Aug	H	vs Schalke 04	1–0	W
22 Aug	A	vs Elversberg	1–2	L
31 Aug	H	vs Darmstadt	3–1	W
14 Sept	A	vs Greuther Furth	3–0	W

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	St. Pauli (Home)	Kaiserslautern (Away)
BTTS rate	—	35.3%
Over 2.5 rate	—	52.9%
Clean sheet	—	23.5%
Avg goals	—	2.65

Home stats use St. Pauli's home record; away stats use Kaiserslautern's away record this season.

Kaiserslautern →🇩🇪 2. Bundesliga standings & fixtures