Paderborn sit fourth and will be motivated by playoff ambitions, but their recent form has cooled noticeably with two losses in their last five. Karlsruhe arrive in patchy shape too, alternating wins and defeats, and their away record this season has been defensively shaky, conceding 2.1 goals per game on the road.

The goal data here pulls in opposite directions. Paderborn's home games have seen BTTS land 81% of the time, well above the league average of 59%, and over 2.5 goals in 75% of matches, again comfortably clear of the 57% league norm. Karlsruhe away, though, have kept clean sheets in 19% of road games and their BTTS rate of 38% is notably low. Paderborn's attacking output at home suggests they can find the net, but whether Karlsruhe contribute at the other end is the real question.

The limited head-to-head history favours Paderborn, and home advantage combined with their superior attacking returns makes them the logical side to back in terms of direction. This looks like a match where Paderborn score, though a high-scoring affair is far from guaranteed given Karlsruhe's away defensive tendencies.