Osnabruck vs Hertha — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Osnabruck
29%
Draw
24%
Hertha
47%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Hertha win 46.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Hertha win. Expected goals 1.37–1.86 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.0%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (7.5%). It finished 1–3.
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Osnabruck
| 8 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Braunschweig | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hertha | 1–3 | L |
Hertha
| 7 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Heidenheim | 4–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Osnabruck (Home · 5 matches) | Hertha (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Osnabruck's home record; away stats use Hertha's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.