Osnabruck vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Osnabruck
36%
Draw
25%
1. FC Kaiserslautern
39%
Expected goals
1.38–1.42
Osnabruck · 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1. FC Kaiserslautern win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (9.1%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Osnabruck score at least twice in 40%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
1. FC Kaiserslautern goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Osnabruck goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Market reference | 36% | 25% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 25% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Osnabruck | 2.67 |
| Draw | 3.73 |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 2.48 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Osnabruck
| 8 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Braunschweig | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hertha | 1–3 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Osnabruck (Home · 5 matches) | 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | — |
Home stats use Osnabruck's home record; away stats use 1. FC Kaiserslautern's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.