Holstein Kiel vs Osnabruck — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Holstein Kiel
55%
top pick
Draw
23%
result
Osnabruck
23%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 22.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Holstein Kiel win. Expected goals 1.90–1.21 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (10.7%), 1–1 (10.5%), 1–0 (8.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Holstein Kiel
| 8 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Osnabruck
| 8 Aug | A | vs Heidenheim | 3–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Magdeburg | 0–3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Braunschweig | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Hertha | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Holstein Kiel (Home · 5 matches) | Osnabruck (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Holstein Kiel's home record; away stats use Osnabruck's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.