Hertha vs Wolfsburg — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Hertha
43%
Draw
24%
Wolfsburg
33%
Expected goals
1.74–1.40
Hertha · Wolfsburg
Hertha win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (7.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Hertha win is 2–1 (7.9%).
Hertha score at least twice in 51%; Wolfsburg in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Wolfsburg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Hertha goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| Market reference | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Hertha | 2.24 |
| Draw | 3.94 |
| Wolfsburg | 2.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Hertha
| 7 Aug | A | vs Bochum | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Heidenheim | 4–1 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Braunschweig | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Magdeburg | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Osnabruck | 3–1 | W |
Wolfsburg
| 8 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Hannover | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 5–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Cottbus | 4–4 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs St Pauli | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hertha (Home · 4 matches) | Wolfsburg (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Hertha's home record; away stats use Wolfsburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.