Hertha come into this in poor shape, winning just one of their last five and sitting sixth in a season that has underwhelmed given their resources. Their home numbers are notably subdued — BTTS in only 38% of home games and Over 2.5 in just 25%, both well below the league averages of 59% and 57% respectively. They average under a goal scored per home game, which tells a story of a side struggling to create and convert.

Greuther Furth arrive as a relegation-threatened side but bring a chaotic profile on the road. BTTS has landed in 69% of their away games with Over 2.5 in 75%, and they concede heavily — over two goals per away fixture on average. That said, they also contribute going forward, averaging 1.4 away goals per game.

The only previous meeting ended in a draw, and despite Hertha's home advantage, their blunt attacking output makes this feel tighter than the standings imply. Furth's leaky defence keeps the door open for goals despite Hertha's low-scoring home trend.