Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 27.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Heidenheim
45%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Holstein Kiel
30%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Heidenheim win 45.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Heidenheim win. Expected goals 1.88–1.43 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (8.2%), 1–2 (7.9%). It finished 1–0.
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Heidenheim
| 8 Aug | H | vs Osnabruck | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Hertha | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Greuther Furth | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 1–0 | W |
Holstein Kiel
| 8 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Magdeburg | 0–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Heidenheim (Home · 5 matches) | Holstein Kiel (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 1.80 |
Home stats use Heidenheim's home record; away stats use Holstein Kiel's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.