Heidenheim vs Hannover — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Heidenheim
45%
Draw
25%
Hannover
30%
Expected goals
1.72–1.35
Heidenheim · Hannover
Heidenheim win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–2 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Heidenheim win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Heidenheim score at least twice in 51%; Hannover in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Hannover goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Heidenheim goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market reference | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Heidenheim | 2.13 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Hannover | 3.18 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Heidenheim
| 8 Aug | H | vs Osnabruck | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Hertha | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Greuther Furth | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 1–0 | W |
Hannover
| 9 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Wolfsburg | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Karlsruhe | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Heidenheim (Home · 5 matches) | Hannover (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Heidenheim's home record; away stats use Hannover's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.