Greuther Furth vs Heidenheim — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 8.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Greuther Furth
31%
Draw
25%
Heidenheim
44%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Heidenheim win 44.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Heidenheim win. Expected goals 1.47–1.78 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.5%). It finished 0–1.
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Greuther Furth
| 9 Aug | A | vs St Pauli | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Nurnberg | 2–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Cottbus | 4–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Heidenheim | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Bochum | 1–1 | D |
Heidenheim
| 8 Aug | H | vs Osnabruck | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Hertha | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Greuther Furth | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Greuther Furth (Home · 5 matches) | Heidenheim (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 3.40 |
Home stats use Greuther Furth's home record; away stats use Heidenheim's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.