Greuther Furth sit 17th and are running out of road, collecting just one win from their last five with a defensive record that has seen them concede an average of 1.9 goals per home game this season. That vulnerability at the back is a consistent thread through their campaign. Fortuna Dusseldorf are hardly convincing either, winning just once in five away outings, but a 16th-place finish means they arrive with marginally more breathing room.

The goal data tells an interesting story. Both sides are tracking below the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5, and Dusseldorf in particular have been quiet on the road, averaging just 0.7 goals per away game. This looks tighter and lower-scoring than the table context might imply.

With Furth desperate for points and Dusseldorf cautious away from home, a cagey, scrappy affair feels likely. The visitors are not convincing enough to dismiss, and this one looks closer than Furth's poor recent form suggests.