Bielefeld vs St Pauli — 2. Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Bielefeld
40%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
St. Pauli
34%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Bielefeld win. Expected goals 1.62–1.34 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (9.4%), 0–1 (7.5%). It finished 2–2.
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Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
St Pauli
| 9 Aug | H | vs Greuther Furth | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Holstein Kiel | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Kaiserslautern | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Bielefeld | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bielefeld (Home · 5 matches) | St Pauli (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Bielefeld's home record; away stats use St Pauli's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.