Bielefeld vs Heidenheim — 2. Bundesliga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Bielefeld
44%
Draw
25%
Heidenheim
31%
Expected goals
1.64–1.36
Bielefeld · Heidenheim
Bielefeld win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Bielefeld win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Bielefeld score at least twice in 49%; Heidenheim in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Heidenheim goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Bielefeld goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Market reference | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 25% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bielefeld | 2.24 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.17 | 2.18 | 2.05 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.16 | 2.24 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 3.62 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.62 | 3.19 | 3.80 Betano |
| Heidenheim | 3.09 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.99 | 2.67 | 3.09 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Bielefeld
| 8 Aug | A | vs Karlsruhe | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cottbus | 3–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Nurnberg | 1–4 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs St Pauli | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Darmstadt | 1–2 | L |
Heidenheim
| 8 Aug | H | vs Osnabruck | 4–3 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Hertha | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Dresden | 5–3 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Greuther Furth | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Holstein Kiel | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Bielefeld (Home · 3 matches) | Heidenheim (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Bielefeld's home record; away stats use Heidenheim's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.