Werder Bremen arrive at this fixture in desperate shape, sitting 15th and winless in four of their last five, with an average of just 1.2 goals scored per home game — well below the Bundesliga average. Their defensive record at home is also a concern, conceding 1.8 per game, and they've kept a clean sheet in fewer than one in five home matches this season. Dortmund, by contrast, have been clinical on the road, averaging 1.8 goals scored away from home and conceding just 1.1.

Despite both sides sitting at 56% for Over 2.5 in their respective contexts — notably below the league average of 63% — Dortmund's away BTTS rate of 62% aligns with the league norm, and Bremen have shown vulnerability at home. The limited H2H data slightly favours Dortmund given their superior position and form. This looks like a match where the gap in quality tells, and the visitors appear undervalued heading into the weekend.