VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia M.Gladbach — Bundesliga forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
VfB Stuttgart
71%
Draw
16%
Borussia M.Gladbach
13%
Expected goals
2.78–1.05
VfB Stuttgart · Borussia M.Gladbach
VfB Stuttgart win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (8.1%), 2–1 (8.1%), 3–0 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 24% of outcomes; the other 76% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart score at least twice in 76%; Borussia M.Gladbach in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Borussia M.Gladbach goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market reference | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 71% | 16% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.37 |
| Draw | 5.82 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach | 7.29 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
| 28 Aug | A | vs Bayern Munich | 1–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 4–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Hoffenheim | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–1 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Paderborn | 2–0 | W |
Borussia M.Gladbach
| 29 Aug | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Elversberg | 3–4 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Freiburg | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 3–4 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | VfB Stuttgart (Home · 2 matches) | Borussia M.Gladbach (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.67 |
Home stats use VfB Stuttgart's home record; away stats use Borussia M.Gladbach's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.