Union Berlin head into this mid-table Bundesliga clash in poor home form, winning just one of their last five across all competitions, while carrying a defensive record that gives little confidence — conceding an average of 1.6 goals per home game this season. Cologne arrive having strung together three draws in their last five, showing some resilience but little cutting edge on the road, averaging just 1.1 goals per away fixture.

The goals data is the most compelling thread here. Union Berlin's home BTTS rate of 71% sits well above the league average of 59%, and Cologne's away clean sheet rate of just 14% suggests they rarely shut things out. Both sides have been leaky enough that goals at both ends look a reasonable expectation, even if the overall volume stays modest given Cologne's low away scoring output.

With both teams hovering in the bottom half and neither in convincing form, this looks tighter than a straightforward home win narrative would suggest. The visitors are not without a case here.