St. Pauli head into this crucial relegation battle in poor shape, winning none of their last five and averaging just 1.0 goal per home game this season. With a clean sheet rate of just 14% at home and conceding 1.8 per match, their defensive frailties are well documented. Sitting 16th, the pressure is immense.

Mainz arrive in much better nick, winning three of their last four away from home, and their road record this season is notably leaky at both ends — a 7% away clean sheet rate and 1.9 conceded per game away suggests this fixture has the ingredients for an open, scrappy contest.

Both sides rank above the league average for BTTS and Over 2.5 in their respective home and away fixtures, and the numbers here point to goals at both ends being a realistic outcome. The visitors look the more composed side in current form, and this matchup appears more comfortable for Mainz than the table gap might indicate.