Leipzig head into this one in fine fettle, winning four of their last five at home and averaging 2.3 goals scored per home game this season. Their over 2.5 rate of 73% at home stands well above the Bundesliga average of 63%, and they've kept a clean sheet in 40% of home fixtures, underlining a side that dominates domestically when in this kind of form.

St. Pauli arrive in poor shape, winless in their last five away from home and averaging just 0.7 goals on the road. Their away over 2.5 rate of 40% is notably below the league norm, and they've only kept one clean sheet in five away trips. The lone H2H meeting ended in a draw, but the context of that result matters less given the gulf in current form and league position.

This looks like a mismatch that the numbers back up clearly. Leipzig's attacking output against a side struggling to score or defend on the road points toward a comfortable home victory, with goals likely flowing in one direction.