Wolfsburg arrive at this fixture in precarious league standing, sitting 16th and battling what looks like a relegation scrap. Their away record this season tells a complicated story - a run of W D D L W suggests they are capable of picking up points on the road, but the underlying numbers paint a messier picture. They have kept a clean sheet in just 6% of away games, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per outing, which points to a defence that leaks regularly regardless of the result.

The BTTS angle is particularly striking. Wolfsburg away games have seen both teams score in 76% of fixtures, well clear of the league average of 62%, and Over 2.5 goals has landed at 65%, broadly in line with the league norm. Without home form data on Paderborn it is difficult to fully assess the balance of this fixture, but the visitors' defensive fragility and open style suggest goals are likely here regardless of who is pushing for the three points.