Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen — Bundesliga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mainz 05
55%
Draw
23%
Werder Bremen
22%
Expected goals
1.93–1.13
Mainz 05 · Werder Bremen
Mainz 05 win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Mainz 05 win is 2–1 (9.8%).
Mainz 05 score at least twice in 57%; Werder Bremen in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Werder Bremen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mainz 05 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Mainz 05 | 1.76 |
| Draw | 4.20 |
| Werder Bremen | 4.32 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Mainz 05
| 29 Aug | H | vs Paderborn | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
Werder Bremen
| 30 Aug | A | vs Freiburg | 1–4 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs FC Cologne | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Augsburg | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mainz 05 (Home · 3 matches) | Werder Bremen (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Mainz 05's home record; away stats use Werder Bremen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.