Hoffenheim head into this one sitting fifth and nursing a patchy run of form, but their home record this season has been consistently productive. They average 2.1 goals scored per home game and have seen both teams score in 67% of those fixtures, comfortably above the Bundesliga average of 60%. Goals have flowed freely at their ground all season, with over 2.5 goals landing in nearly three quarters of home matches.

Werder Bremen arrive deep in relegation trouble and have been unconvincing on the road, conceding 1.8 goals per away game while only finding the net 1.1 times. Their away BTTS rate of 47% is notably below the league average, suggesting they often fail to contribute at both ends. The limited head-to-head history slightly favours the hosts, with Hoffenheim winning the one recent meeting.

The table gap is significant and Hoffenheim's home attacking output makes this look more one-sided than a competitive fixture on paper. The visitors are unlikely to be undervalued here.