Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hoffenheim
36%
Draw
25%
Borussia Dortmund
39%
pick · result
Final score
2–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Borussia Dortmund win 39.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Borussia Dortmund win. Expected goals 1.57–1.65 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.1%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.3%). It finished 2–3.
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Hoffenheim
| 29 Aug | A | vs FC Cologne | 2–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Paderborn | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Hamburg | 2–3 | L |
Borussia Dortmund
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hamburg | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Paderborn | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | H | vs Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hoffenheim (Home · 4 matches) | Borussia Dortmund (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Hoffenheim's home record; away stats use Borussia Dortmund's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.