Hamburg vs Mainz 05 — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Hamburg
33%
Draw
28%
Mainz 05
39%
pick · result
Final score
0–5
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Mainz 05 win 39.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mainz 05 win. Expected goals 1.52–1.63 against 0–5 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–2 (8.9%), 2–2 (7.4%). It finished 0–5.
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Hamburg
| 29 Aug | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
Mainz 05
| 29 Aug | H | vs Paderborn | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Hamburg (Home · 3 matches) | Mainz 05 (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Hamburg's home record; away stats use Mainz 05's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.