Freiburg head into this fixture in inconsistent domestic form, but the contrast with Wolfsburg's situation is stark. The visitors arrive having lost four of their last five away games, sitting 17th and deep in relegation trouble, with just a 7% clean sheet rate on the road this season. That defensive fragility away from home is hard to ignore.

The goal data here is eye-catching. Both sides rank well above the Bundesliga average for BTTS, with Freiburg's home matches producing goals in both nets 79% of the time against a league average of 59%. Wolfsburg's away record offers little resistance, conceding an average of 2.4 per game on the road. This looks like a fixture where goals are a realistic expectation.

Despite Freiburg's stop-start form, they hold the only H2H result between these sides and the home advantage over a side fighting to stay up. The hosts look undervalued in this one.