Heidenheim sit bottom of the Bundesliga and desperately need points to preserve any survival hopes, but their home record offers little comfort — conceding an average of 2.2 goals per game at their own ground while keeping a clean sheet in just 6% of home matches. Their recent form (D W L W D) shows some fight, but the underlying numbers tell a story of a leaky defence under sustained pressure.

Mainz arrive in decent shape with a mid-table security and an away record that leans heavily toward open, eventful football. Both sides have BTTS figures at or above the league average of 62%, and Heidenheim's home O2.5 rate of 75% significantly outpaces the league norm of 63% — goals look highly likely here.

The only prior meeting went Mainz's way, and with Heidenheim's defensive vulnerabilities exposed all season, the visitors look undervalued. This has the feel of a game where Mainz control the tempo and punish a side running out of road.