Elversberg vs Mainz 05 — Bundesliga forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Elversberg
28%
Draw
25%
Mainz 05
47%
Expected goals
1.56–1.93
Elversberg · Mainz 05
Mainz 05 win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.6%), 1–2 (9.8%), 2–2 (7.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Mainz 05 win is 1–2 (9.9%).
Elversberg score at least twice in 46%; Mainz 05 in 58%.
Scoreline distribution
Mainz 05 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Elversberg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Market reference | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 25% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Elversberg | 3.38 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Mainz 05 | 2.05 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Elversberg
| 29 Aug | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Bayern Munich | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Schalke 04 | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | vs Union Berlin | 0–1 | L |
Mainz 05
| 29 Aug | H | vs Paderborn | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Hamburg | 5–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Eintracht Frankfurt | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 4–3 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Elversberg (Home · 3 matches) | Mainz 05 (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 5.00 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Elversberg's home record; away stats use Mainz 05's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.