Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Borussia Dortmund
78%
pick · result
Draw
13%
Paderborn
8%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Borussia Dortmund win 78.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Borussia Dortmund win. Expected goals 2.54–0.85 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (11.4%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 3–0.
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Borussia Dortmund
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hamburg | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Paderborn | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Oct | H | vs Werder Bremen | 2–2 | D |
Paderborn
| 29 Aug | A | vs Mainz 05 | 0–0 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Freiburg | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Hoffenheim | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | vs VfB Stuttgart | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund (Home · 4 matches) | Paderborn (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Borussia Dortmund's home record; away stats use Paderborn's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.