Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburg — Bundesliga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · under an hour before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Borussia Dortmund
72%
pick · result
Draw
17%
Hamburg
12%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Borussia Dortmund win 71.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Borussia Dortmund win. Expected goals 2.54–0.96 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.6%), 3–0 (8.3%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
| 29 Aug | H | vs Hamburg | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Hoffenheim | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Paderborn | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | W |
Hamburg
| 29 Aug | A | vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Mainz 05 | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0–5 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs FC Cologne | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund (Home · 2 matches) | Hamburg (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Borussia Dortmund's home record; away stats use Hamburg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.