🇩🇪 Bundesliga·Saturday, 29 August 2026·16:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| Draw | 5.47 | 5.47 |
| Hamburg | 7.99 | 7.99 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketBorussia Dortmund
71%
Draw
17%
Hamburg
12%
Borussia Dortmund 2.52 xGexpected goals0.96 xG Hamburg
Borussia Dortmund win 71% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (9.8%).
Borussia Dortmund score at least twice in 72%; Hamburg in 25%.
2–0 9.8%2–1 9.6%3–0 8.2%3–1 8.0%1–1 7.9%1–0 7.3%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
rows = Borussia Dortmund goals · columns = Hamburg goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score58%
Over 1.5 goals87%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Over 4.5 goals27%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet38%
Hamburg clean sheet8%
Borussia Dortmund score 2+72%
Hamburg score 2+25%
Borussia Dortmund score 3+46%
Model vs market
| Source | Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Hamburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 71% | 17% | 12% |
| Metis Forecast | 71% | 17% | 12% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Borussia Dortmund
| 23 Aug | A | vs St. Pauli | 3–3 | D |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Union Berlin | 3–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs FC Heidenheim | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Wolfsburg | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Sept | A | vs Mainz 05 | 2–0 | W |
Hamburg
| 24 Aug | A | vs Borussia M.Gladbach | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs St. Pauli | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Bayern Munich | 0–5 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs FC Heidenheim | 2–1 | W |
| 28 Sept | A | vs Union Berlin | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 21 Mar 26 | DortmundvsHamburg | 3 – 2 |
| 8 Nov 25 | HamburgvsDortmund | 1 – 1 |
Borussia Dortmund: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Borussia Dortmund (Home) | Hamburg (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 41.2% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Clean sheet | 52.9% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 2.76 |
Home stats use Borussia Dortmund's home record; away stats use Hamburg's away record this season.