Vitoria vs Gremio — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 8 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 11.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vitoria
46%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Gremio
26%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Vitoria win 45.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vitoria win. Expected goals 1.43–1.03 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (11.6%), 0–0 (9.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Gremio
| 28 Jan | A | vs Fluminense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 5–3 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Mar | H | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria (Home · 16 matches) | Gremio (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 62.5% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.18 |
Home stats use Vitoria's home record; away stats use Gremio's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.