Vitoria vs Fluminense — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vitoria
35%
Draw
29%
Fluminense
36%
Expected goals
1.25–1.24
Vitoria · Fluminense
Fluminense win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vitoria score at least twice in 35%; Fluminense in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Fluminense goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 13.7 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vitoria goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Market reference | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vitoria | 2.76 |
| Draw | 3.30 |
| Fluminense | 2.63 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Fluminense
| 28 Jan | H | vs Gremio | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Botafogo RJ | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 9 May 26 | FluminensevsVitoria | 2 – 2 |
Vitoria: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria (Home · 16 matches) | Fluminense (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 43.8% |
| Clean sheet | 62.5% | 6.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.88 |
Home stats use Vitoria's home record; away stats use Fluminense's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.