Vitoria vs Cruzeiro — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vitoria
31%
Draw
29%
Cruzeiro
40%
pick · result
Final score
1–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Cruzeiro win 39.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cruzeiro win. Expected goals 1.17–1.38 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (9.3%), 0–0 (8.9%). It finished 1–3.
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Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Cruzeiro
| 6 Sept | H | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria (Home · 16 matches) | Cruzeiro (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 31.2% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 62.5% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.24 |
Home stats use Vitoria's home record; away stats use Cruzeiro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.