Vitoria vs Athletico-PR — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vitoria
37%
Draw
28%
Athletico-PR
34%
Expected goals
1.29–1.28
Vitoria · Athletico-PR
Vitoria win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vitoria score at least twice in 37%; Athletico-PR in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Athletico-PR goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vitoria goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| Market reference | 37% | 28% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 28% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vitoria | 2.57 |
| Draw | 3.33 |
| Athletico-PR | 2.79 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vitoria
| 28 Jan | H | vs Remo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Palmeiras | 1–5 | L |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Bahia | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Mar | H | vs Atletico-MG | 2–0 | W |
Athletico-PR
| 28 Jan | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Santos | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 0–1 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Bragantino | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Fluminense | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | Athletico-PRvsVitoria | 3 – 1 |
Vitoria: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vitoria (Home · 15 matches) | Athletico-PR (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.27 | 2.93 |
Home stats use Vitoria's home record; away stats use Athletico-PR's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.