Vasco vs Internacional — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Thursday, 19 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vasco
57%
Draw
23%
Internacional
19%
Expected goals
1.73–0.97
Vasco · Internacional
Vasco win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.1%), 2–1 (11.2%), 1–1 (11.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vasco score at least twice in 53%; Internacional in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Internacional goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vasco goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market reference | 57% | 23% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 23% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vasco | 1.69 |
| Draw | 4.00 |
| Internacional | 4.83 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 15 Nov · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 16 May 26 | InternacionalvsVasco | 4 – 1 |
Vasco: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vasco (Home · 17 matches) | Internacional (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.41 |
Home stats use Vasco's home record; away stats use Internacional's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.