🇧🇷 Brazilian Serie A·Sunday, 30 August 2026·00:20
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco | 2.06 | 2.06 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.38 |
| Cruzeiro | 3.96 | 3.96 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketVasco
47%
Draw
28%
Cruzeiro
24%
Vasco 1.54 xGexpected goals1.08 xG Cruzeiro
Vasco win 47% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.6%).
Vasco score at least twice in 46%; Cruzeiro in 29%.
1–1 13.6%1–0 10.5%2–1 9.8%2–0 8.6%0–0 8.4%0–1 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Vasco goals · columns = Cruzeiro goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score54%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Over 4.5 goals13%
Vasco clean sheet34%
Cruzeiro clean sheet21%
Vasco score 2+46%
Cruzeiro score 2+29%
Vasco score 3+20%
Model vs market
| Source | Vasco | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 47% | 28% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 28% | 24% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Cruzeiro
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | CruzeirovsVasco | 3 – 3 |
Vasco: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vasco (Home) | Cruzeiro (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.3% | 63.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.3% | 63.6% |
| Clean sheet | 8.3% | 18.2% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.82 |
Home stats use Vasco's home record; away stats use Cruzeiro's away record this season.