Vasco vs Cruzeiro — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vasco
47%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Cruzeiro
24%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Vasco win 47.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vasco win. Expected goals 1.51–1.11 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (11.1%), 2–1 (10.7%). It finished 3–1.
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Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Cruzeiro
| 6 Sept | H | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vasco (Home · 14 matches) | Cruzeiro (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.3% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.79 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Vasco's home record; away stats use Cruzeiro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.