Vasco vs Coritiba — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 19.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Vasco
64%
pick · result
Draw
22%
Coritiba
14%
Final score
5–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Vasco win 64.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Vasco win. Expected goals 1.98–0.84 against 5–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.8%), 1–0 (11.4%), 1–1 (10.4%). It finished 5–0.
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Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Coritiba
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bragantino | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Corinthians | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Vasco (Home · 17 matches) | Coritiba (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 35.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 17.6% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 2.82 |
Home stats use Vasco's home record; away stats use Coritiba's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.