Vasco vs Corinthians — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Vasco
57%
Draw
24%
Corinthians
19%
Expected goals
1.75–0.91
Vasco · Corinthians
Vasco win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11.8%), 1–1 (11.5%), 2–0 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Vasco score at least twice in 53%; Corinthians in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Corinthians goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Vasco goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market reference | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 24% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Vasco | 1.68 |
| Draw | 3.91 |
| Corinthians | 4.96 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Vasco
| 29 Jan | A | vs Mirassol | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bahia | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Palmeiras | 2–1 | W |
Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 26 Apr 26 | CorinthiansvsVasco | 1 – 0 |
Vasco: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Vasco (Home · 15 matches) | Corinthians (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 53.3% | 73.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 53.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.53 |
Home stats use Vasco's home record; away stats use Corinthians's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.