Sao Paulo vs Internacional — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 20.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sao Paulo
50%
pick · result
Draw
27%
Internacional
23%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sao Paulo win 50.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sao Paulo win. Expected goals 1.49–0.93 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.8%), 1–0 (12.7%), 2–0 (10.0%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Internacional
| 28 Jan | H | vs Athletico-PR | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Flamengo RJ | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Feb | H | vs Palmeiras | 1–3 | L |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Remo | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Atletico-MG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sao Paulo (Home · 17 matches) | Internacional (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 41.2% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 2.24 | 2.41 |
Home stats use Sao Paulo's home record; away stats use Internacional's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.