Sao Paulo vs Corinthians — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Thursday, 5 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sao Paulo
45%
Draw
29%
Corinthians
25%
Expected goals
1.53–1.04
Sao Paulo · Corinthians
Sao Paulo win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sao Paulo win is 1–0 (9.6%).
Sao Paulo score at least twice in 45%; Corinthians in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Corinthians goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sao Paulo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 26% | 19% |
| Market reference | 45% | 29% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 29% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.12 |
| Draw | 3.23 |
| Corinthians | 3.77 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 31 Oct · 04:34 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 10 May 26 | CorinthiansvsSao Paulo | 3 – 2 |
Sao Paulo: 0W 0D 1L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Sao Paulo (Home · 16 matches) | Corinthians (Away · 16 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 56.2% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Clean sheet | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.38 | 2.69 |
Home stats use Sao Paulo's home record; away stats use Corinthians's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.