Sao Paulo vs Bragantino — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sao Paulo
44%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Bragantino
27%
Final score
2–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sao Paulo win 44.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sao Paulo win. Expected goals 1.48–1.02 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (9.8%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 2–1.
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Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Bragantino
| 28 Jan | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Atletico-MG | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Corinthians | 0–2 | L |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Athletico-PR | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Mar | A | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sao Paulo (Home · 17 matches) | Bragantino (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 29.4% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.24 | 2.12 |
Home stats use Sao Paulo's home record; away stats use Bragantino's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.