Santos come into this on the back of a turbulent run, collecting just one win in their last five and sitting dangerously close to the relegation zone at 16th. Their home record offers modest comfort, with a clean sheet rate of 33% and an average of 1.3 goals scored per game, though they have been leaky enough to keep opponents interested. Vitoria arrive in slightly better shape positionally but have been poor travellers, conceding at an alarming rate on the road with zero clean sheets away from home this season and an average of 2.4 goals conceded per away fixture.

That defensive vulnerability from Vitoria is the standout data point here. Their away BTTS rate of 62% edges above the league average of 59%, and both sides look capable of contributing to a competitive, scrappy affair. With no H2H history to lean on, this looks like a closer contest than the league positions imply, and the visitors are unlikely to keep things tight.