Santos vs Cruzeiro — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Santos
34%
result
Draw
28%
Cruzeiro
39%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Santos win 33.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Cruzeiro win. Expected goals 1.24–1.30 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 0–1 (10.0%), 1–2 (9.0%). It finished 2–1.
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Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Cruzeiro
| 6 Sept | H | vs Atletico Paranaense | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Jan | A | vs Botafogo RJ | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 1–2 | L |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Corinthians | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Santos (Home · 17 matches) | Cruzeiro (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 64.7% | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 17.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.59 | 3.24 |
Home stats use Santos's home record; away stats use Cruzeiro's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.