Santos vs Bahia — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Santos
50%
Draw
25%
Bahia
25%
Expected goals
1.64–1.16
Santos · Bahia
Santos win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Santos win is 2–1 (10.7%).
Santos score at least twice in 50%; Bahia in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Bahia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Santos goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market reference | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Santos | 1.93 |
| Draw | 3.78 |
| Bahia | 3.75 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Santos
| 28 Jan | A | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–4 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Sao Paulo | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–2 | L |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Vasco | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Mar | A | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
Bahia
| 28 Jan | A | vs Corinthians | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–0 | W |
| 11 Mar | H | vs Vitoria | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Mar | A | vs Internacional | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 25 Apr 26 | BahiavsSantos | 2 – 2 |
Santos: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Santos (Home · 15 matches) | Bahia (Away · 15 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 53.3% | 53.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.87 |
Home stats use Santos's home record; away stats use Bahia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.