Remo vs Chapecoense-SC — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Wednesday, 18 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Remo
58%
Draw
22%
Chapecoense-SC
19%
Expected goals
1.71–0.92
Remo · Chapecoense-SC
Remo win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.0%), 2–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (11.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Remo score at least twice in 52%; Chapecoense-SC in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Chapecoense-SC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Remo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| Market reference | 58% | 22% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 22% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Remo | 1.66 |
| Draw | 4.21 |
| Chapecoense-SC | 4.80 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 15 Nov · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Remo
| 28 Jan | A | vs Vitoria | 0–2 | L |
| 4 Feb | H | vs Mirassol | 2–2 | D |
| 11 Feb | A | vs Atletico-MG | 3–3 | D |
| 25 Feb | H | vs Internacional | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Fluminense | 0–2 | L |
Chapecoense-SC
| 28 Jan | H | vs Santos | 4–2 | W |
| 5 Feb | A | vs Vasco | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Feb | H | vs Coritiba | 3–3 | D |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Sao Paulo | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Mar | H | vs Gremio | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 17 May 26 | Chapecoense-SCvsRemo | 2 – 3 |
Remo: 1W 0D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Remo (Home · 17 matches) | Chapecoense-SC (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 70.6% | 52.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 41.2% | 47.1% |
| Clean sheet | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.59 | 2.53 |
Home stats use Remo's home record; away stats use Chapecoense-SC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.