Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo — Brazilian Serie A result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 13.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Palmeiras
59%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Sao Paulo
16%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Palmeiras win 59.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Palmeiras win. Expected goals 1.79–0.81 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.0%), 2–0 (11.8%), 1–1 (11.7%). It finished 2–0 — one of them.
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Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Sao Paulo
| 29 Jan | H | vs Flamengo RJ | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Feb | A | vs Santos | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Gremio | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Coritiba | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Chapecoense-SC | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Palmeiras (Home · 17 matches) | Sao Paulo (Away · 17 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 35.3% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 5.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.76 | 2.35 |
Home stats use Palmeiras's home record; away stats use Sao Paulo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.