Palmeiras arrive at this Paulista derby in imperious form, dropping just two points from their last five league outings while sitting comfortably at the summit. Their home record this season has been particularly imposing, averaging 2.2 goals scored against just 0.7 conceded per game, and they have kept a clean sheet in a third of those fixtures. Santos, meanwhile, sit fifteenth and have been inconsistent on the road, managing just one win from their last three away trips.

The goal data is where this fixture gets interesting. Both sides carry elevated BTTS and Over 2.5 figures well above the Serie A average, and Santos have conceded heavily away from home all season. Palmeiras have the firepower to expose that, and the visitors offer enough of an attacking threat to suggest this will not be a sterile contest.

With no prior H2H data to lean on, the form picture does the talking. This looks like a fixture with goals, and the home side appear considerably stronger than their opponents right now.