Palmeiras vs Corinthians — Brazilian Serie A forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Palmeiras
60%
Draw
26%
Corinthians
15%
Expected goals
1.85–0.78
Palmeiras · Corinthians
Palmeiras win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 2–0 (11.9%), 1–0 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Palmeiras win is 2–0 (11.9%).
Palmeiras score at least twice in 54%; Corinthians in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Corinthians goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Palmeiras goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market reference | 60% | 26% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 26% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.61 |
| Draw | 3.68 |
| Corinthians | 6.20 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Palmeiras
| 28 Jan | A | vs Atletico-MG | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Feb | H | vs Vitoria | 5–1 | W |
| 13 Feb | A | vs Internacional | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Feb | H | vs Fluminense | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Mar | A | vs Vasco | 1–2 | L |
Corinthians
| 28 Jan | H | vs Bahia | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Feb | H | vs Bragantino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Feb | A | vs Athletico-PR | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Feb | A | vs Cruzeiro | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Mar | H | vs Coritiba | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 12 Apr 26 | CorinthiansvsPalmeiras | 0 – 0 |
Palmeiras: 0W 1D 0L in last 1
Model context
| Stat | Palmeiras (Home · 14 matches) | Corinthians (Away · 14 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 28.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.36 | 2.36 |
Home stats use Palmeiras's home record; away stats use Corinthians's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.